I have been contacted by several constituents who have concerns about the excess deaths reported by the Office of National Statistics (ONS); I understand those concerns and would like to address them here.
My colleague, Maria Caulfield MP, as the responding Minister at the Covid-19: Response and Excess Deaths debate that took place on 18th April stated,
‘As I set out in previous debates, when we have seen those rises in excess deaths—and we have seen significant excess deaths—we have looked at that data to see the cause behind it, whether it is the vaccine, covid, or other factors. ‘
ONS data published in August 2023 shows that people who have had a Covid-19 vaccine have a lower mortality rate than those who have not been vaccinated. Although it is true to say that a high number of people who were vaccinated appear in the excess death population, when 93.6 per cent of the population have had at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, there will be a high number of vaccinated people in the excess death numbers. This is prevalence, not causality. It is important to look at the causes of excess deaths and to tackle them.
The Government is taking steps to reduce excess deaths, including those which involve Covid-19. Vaccines remain the first line of defence against Covid-19. Antivirals and other treatments play a crucial role in protecting patients who become infected with Covid-19, particularly those for whom the vaccine may be less effective such as the immunosuppressed.
The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) followed rigorous procedures to ensure the vaccines met the necessary high standards in safety and efficacy. The MHRA is one of the most respected regulators in the world and I welcome that the World Health Organisation not only backed its approach, but also commended its work.
The Government is preparing for variants of Covid-19 and influenza through the Covid-19 booster and flu vaccination programmes, minimising hospital admissions from both viruses. Going forward, I strongly encourage eligible people to get their booster jab and their flu jab to protect themselves, their loved ones and the NHS.
Regarding the way in which the ONS records excess mortality, I am assured concerns here are entirely misplaced. Working across government and the devolved nations, the ONS has now agreed a common UK-wide approach to producing national estimates of excess mortality which will give us a better understanding of this complex area.
The chosen methodology uses statistical models to obtain the expected number of deaths in each period. Importantly, this approach moves away from averages drawn from raw numbers and instead uses age-specific mortality rates. This takes into account how the population has grown and aged over time. The models also account for trends and seasonality in population mortality rates, and allow for estimates of excess deaths to be broken down by age group, sex, and constituent countries of the UK and English region.
The new methodology is closely aligned with that used by the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities to estimate excess deaths in English local authorities and other population subgroups. It will be used by the National Records of Scotland and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency to estimate excess deaths in Scotland and Northern Ireland, respectively. By introducing a consistent method for estimating excess deaths across the UK, the ONS intends to increase coherence and bring improved understanding to this important topic.
I fully appreciate concerns about how missed appointments and health checks due to the pandemic have contributed to excess deaths and the Prime Minister has made it clear that reducing waiting lists for NHS treatment is one of his key priorities over the coming months.
Clearly, the disruption caused by Covid-19 has had a significant impact on those people who were living with cancer and other major conditions. The Government is taking steps to reduce excess deaths due to these conditions, including through a delivery plan setting out how the NHS will expand elective services over the next three years. The plan commits the NHS to deliver nine million additional treatments and diagnostic procedures over the next three years and around 30 per cent more elective activity than it was doing before the pandemic by 2024/25.
Furthermore, the Government intends to publish a Major Conditions Strategy to tackle conditions that contribute most to morbidity and mortality across the population in England including: cancers; cardiovascular disease, including stroke and diabetes; chronic respiratory diseases; dementia; mental ill health; and musculoskeletal conditions.
The Under-Secretary of State for Health and Social Care praised the hard work being done and shared that ‘the ONS data shows that in every week in 2024 so far, we have had negative excess deaths.’
I have provided a link to the Covid-19: Response and Excess Deaths debate that took place on 18th April and hope you find it interesting.
Covid-19: Response and Excess Deaths - Hansard - UK Parliament
